Sipavibart is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by , with a leading Phase III program in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, 3 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Sipavibart鈥檚 valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). .

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The revenue for Sipavibart is expected to reach an annual total of $28 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData鈥檚 Expiry Model. The drug鈥檚 revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug鈥檚 phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Sipavibart Overview

AZD-3152 is under development for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It acts by targeting spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. The drug candidate is an investigational next-generation long-acting antibody (LAAB) and administered through intravenous and intramuscular routes.

AstraZeneca Overview

is a biopharmaceutical company, which is focused on discovery, production and commercialization of a range of prescription drugs. It develops products related to therapy areas such as respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, cancer, autoimmune, infection and neurological diseases. The company鈥檚 product portfolio includes biologics, prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. sells its products through wholly-owned local marketing companies, distributors and local representative offices. The company markets its products to primary care and specialty care physicians. The company operates in Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australasia. is headquartered in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, the UK.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$45,811 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 3.3% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company鈥檚 operating margin was 17.9%, compared to an operating margin of 8.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 13%, compared to a net margin of 7.4% in FY2022. The company reported revenues of US$12,938 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 2% over the previous quarter.

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData鈥檚 world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData鈥檚 rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData鈥檚 .