Risk Adjusted Net Present Value: What is the current valuation of Daiichi Sankyo's Patritumab deruxtecan

The revenue for Patritumab deruxtecan is expected to reach an annual total of $110 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData聮s Expiry Model. The drug聮s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug聮s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Patritumab deruxtecan Overview

Patritumab deruxtecan (U-31402) is under development for the treatment of HER3-positive metastatic or unresectable breast cancer, leptomeningeal disease from advanced solid tumors, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative breast cancer, squamous or non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer, melanoma, intestinal cancer, ovarian cancer, cholangiocarcinoma, prostate cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, oral cavity cancer, oropharyngeal cancer, hypopharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, gastric cancer, gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma and triple negative breast cancer. It is administered intravenously. The drug candidate is an antibody-drug conjugate which consists of a fully human anti-HER3 IgG1 monoclonal antibody linked to a topoisomerase I inhibitor payload. It is being developed based on proprietary payload and linker-payload technology.

It was under development for the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer, colon cancer, rectal adenocarcinoma, bladder cancer and skin cancer.

Daiichi Sankyo Overview

is a holding company, which carries out the research, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The company offers a wide range of prescription drugs, over the counter (OTC) drugs, vaccines, and others. Its portfolio encompasses medicines for cardiovascular, neurological, nephrological, diabetic, metabolic, and infectious diseases, and various types of cancers. Besides cancer, the company聮s other research areas include rare diseases and immune disorders. sells its products through its group companies and an extensive network of medical representatives. It has operations in North America, South and Central America, Europe, and Asia. is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY1,601,688 million for the fiscal year ended March 2024 (FY2024), an increase of 25.3% over FY2023. In FY2024, the company聮s operating margin was 13.6%, compared to an operating margin of 9.3% in FY2023. In FY2024, the company recorded a net margin of 12.5%, compared to a net margin of 8.5% in FY2023.

For a complete picture of Patritumab deruxtecan聮s valuation,

This content was updated on 24 July 2024

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData鈥檚 world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData鈥檚 rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData鈥檚 .