NBI-1076986 is a small molecule commercialized by , with a leading Phase I program in Movement Disorders. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 1 clinical trial, which is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of NBI-1076986鈥檚 valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). .

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The revenue for NBI-1076986 is expected to reach an annual total of $13 mn by 2038 globally based off GlobalData鈥檚 Expiry Model. The drug鈥檚 revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug鈥檚 phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

NBI-1076986 Overview

NBI-1076986 is under development for the treatment of movement disorders. It is administered through oral. The drug candidate acts by targeting muscarinic 4 receptor.

Neurocrine Biosciences Overview

(Neurocrine) is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and markets neurological drugs. The company鈥檚 lead product Ingrezza, is a vesicular monoamine transporter 2 (VMAT2) inhibitor to treat adults with tardive dyskinesia and chorea associated with Huntington鈥檚 disease. It is developing a pipeline of drug candidates for various indications in neurology, neuroendocrinology, and neuropsychiatry. Neurocrine also conducts clinical trials and studies for diseases such as movement disorders, epilepsy, and congenital adrenal hyperplasia, among others. The company works in collaboration with and for products distribution. Neurocrine is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$1,887.1 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 26.8% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company鈥檚 operating margin was 13.3%, compared to an operating margin of 12% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 13.2%, compared to a net margin of 10.4% in FY2022. The company reported revenues of US$590.2 million for the second quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 14.5% over the previous quarter.

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData鈥檚 world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData鈥檚 rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData鈥檚 .