Risk Adjusted Net Present Value: What is the current valuation of Daiichi Sankyo's Ifinatamab Deruxtecan

The revenue for Ifinatamab Deruxtecan is expected to reach an annual total of $188 mn by 2039 in the US based off GlobalData聮s Expiry Model. The drug聮s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug聮s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Ifinatamab Deruxtecan Overview

Ifinatamab deruxtecan (DS-7300) is under development for the treatment of solid tumors including advanced or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, oral cavity cancer, oropharyngeal cancer, hypopharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, metastatic colorectal cancer, metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma, gastric cancer, gastroesophageal junction carcinomas, non-small cell lung cancer, metastatic urothelial carcinoma, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, squamous and adenocarcinoma of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), small-cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, sarcoma, endometrial cancer, melanoma, metastatic hormone refractory (castration resistant, androgen-independent) prostate cancer and breast cancer.

It is also under development for pretreated extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC). It targets B7-H3/CD276 antigen. The drug candidate is based on antibody drug conjugate (ADC) technology. It is administered through intravenous route as a solution. The drug candidate comprises of a humanized anti-B7-H3 IgG1 monoclonal antibody attached to a topoisomerase I inhibitor payload, an exatecan derivative, via a tetrapeptide-based cleavable linker.

Daiichi Sankyo Overview

is a holding company, which carries out the research, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The company offers a wide range of prescription drugs, over the counter (OTC) drugs, vaccines, and others. Its portfolio encompasses medicines for cardiovascular, neurological, nephrological, diabetic, metabolic, and infectious diseases, and various types of cancers. Besides cancer, the company聮s other research areas include rare diseases and immune disorders. sells its products through its group companies and an extensive network of medical representatives. It has operations in North America, South and Central America, Europe, and Asia. is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY1,601,688 million for the fiscal year ended March 2024 (FY2024), an increase of 25.3% over FY2023. In FY2024, the company聮s operating margin was 13.6%, compared to an operating margin of 9.3% in FY2023. In FY2024, the company recorded a net margin of 12.5%, compared to a net margin of 8.5% in FY2023.

For a complete picture of Ifinatamab Deruxtecan聮s valuation,

This content was updated on 24 July 2024

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData鈥檚 world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData鈥檚 rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData鈥檚 .