Risk Adjusted Net Present Value: What is the current valuation of Sanofi's Rilzabrutinib

The revenue for Rilzabrutinib is expected to reach an annual total of $242 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData鈥檚 Expiry Model. The drug鈥檚 revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug鈥檚 phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Rilzabrutinib Overview

Rilzabrutinib (PRN-1008) is under development for the treatment of autoimmune hemolytic anemia, immune thrombocytopenic purpura, asthma, Chronic spontaneous urticaria, atopic dermatitis, purigo nodularis and IgG4-related disease. The drug candidate is a small molecule administered orally. The drug candidate targets Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) enzyme. It is based on Tailored covalency technology platform. It was also under development for rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and inflammatory bowel disease.

Rilzabrutinib was under development for the treatment of pemphigus foliaceus, newly diagnosed or relapsing pemphigus vulgaris,

Sanofi Overview

is a healthcare company, which is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing, and marketing of a wide range of medicines and vaccines. Its portfolio includes medicines for the treatment of cancer, rare diseases, multiple sclerosis; human vaccines for protection against various bacterial and viral diseases; and other products. The company also offers consumer healthcare products for digestion; allergy; cough, cold, flu and sinus; pain; women鈥檚 health; and vitamins, minerals, and supplements. ‘s R&D efforts focus on advancing a combination drug to increase the effectiveness of treatments and on advancing the formulation of new biologics to produce precision medicines. It has operations in Europe, the Americas, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East. is headquartered in Paris, Ile-de-France, France.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR46,444 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 2.3% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company鈥檚 operating margin was 17%, compared to an operating margin of 23.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 11.6%, compared to a net margin of 18.4% in FY2022. The company reported revenues of EUR11,118 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, a decrease of 55.3% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Rilzabrutinib鈥檚 valuation,

This content was updated on 24 July 2024

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData鈥檚 world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData鈥檚 rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData鈥檚 .